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Implementation planning and evidence-linked development
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Linked challenge: Build a Tariff Exposure and Input-Cost Scenario Planner
Format
Text-first
Lines
51
Sections
16
Linked challenge
Build a Tariff Exposure and Input-Cost Scenario Planner
Prompt source
Original prompt text with formatting preserved for inspection.
51 lines
16 sections
No variables
28 checklist items
## User A trade-policy analyst supporting a manufacturing association. ## Build Map imported inputs to hypothetical tariff changes and supplier dependencies. Show direct exposure and pass-through assumptions without claiming a complete economy-wide policy effect. ## Input Contract - Key: input_id + origin_country + product_code_version + scenario_id. - Fields: customs_value, quantity, currency, supplied_rate, pass_through, substitution_assumption. - Public trade aggregates do not reveal an individual firm supply chain. ## Workflow 1. Map fictional inputs to documented product categories. 2. Calculate direct duty changes under supplied rules. 3. Propagate explicit cost scenarios through the fictional input network. 4. Export exposure tables and missing-classification questions. ## Interface An input dependency graph with product-code review, cost scenarios, and exposure concentration tables. ## Deliverables - A versioned input-to-product mapping model. - A policy scenario report separating direct arithmetic from behavioral assumptions. - Runnable local application, setup commands, and a dependency lockfile. - Versioned input data, data dictionary, acquisition instructions, and rights notes. - Calculation traces, source references, assumption records, and exported review artifacts. - A deterministic baseline and tests for normal, incomplete, contradictory, and failure-recovery cases. - A recorded complete workflow with a reproducible manifest and explicit limitations. ## Acceptance Criteria - Unknown classifications remain unresolved. - Duty and pass-through effects are not applied twice. - Do not interpret a hypothetical rate as a current tariff determination. - Exchange-rate and substitution assumptions appear separately. ## Contrast Case The same duty increase produces different modeled customer costs under different pass-through assumptions. ## Dataset Scope The attached starter files are prototype inputs. Expected starter answers are visible. They are not independent holdouts. Full target: Use public trade aggregates and a fictional firm-level bill of materials. Supply hypothetical tariff rates and pass-through values, not asserted current legal rates. Complete target contracts and expert review remain pending. Public observations are not historical release vintages. ## Tools pandas, NetworkX, Plotly Use an available model appropriate to the task. Record provider, model identifier, version or retrieval date, settings, cost, and latency. Use deterministic code for calculations. Models may extract, retrieve, or explain evidence. They must not invent missing records, override approval rules, or claim professional authority. ## Constraints No customs classification advice, filing, or causal general-equilibrium prediction. - No fabricated records, source citations, professional endorsements, or expert-adjudication claims. - No future-data leakage into dated decisions, model fitting, or historical valuation inputs. - No unauthorized payments, account restrictions, regulatory filings, or production changes. - No automated appraisal certification, tax-compliance determination, or unsupported fraud accusation. - No concealed uncertainty or silently invented inputs required for a numerical conclusion. ## Scoring - Correct domain calculations and justified methods with documented assumptions. Weight: 30. - Source lineage, temporal integrity, rights checks, and explicit synthetic-data labels. Weight: 25. - A working application with review, export, error handling, and reproducible state. Weight: 20. - Adversarial cases, uncertainty, missing-data behavior, and sensitivity analysis. Weight: 15. - Evidence-linked conclusions that distinguish facts, assumptions, and unresolved judgments. Weight: 10. Score each dimension from zero to two. Weighted score = sum(weight * score / 2). A failed safety gate blocks acceptance.
Adaptation plan
Keep the source stable, then change the prompt in a predictable order so the next run is easier to evaluate.
Keep stable
Preserve the source structure until you know which part of the prompt is actually driving the result quality.
Tune next
Change domain facts, examples, and tool context first before you rewrite the instruction scaffold.
Verify after
Validate one failure mode at a time so prompt changes stay attributable instead of getting noisy.