Build an ERA5 Wildfire Extreme Heat Index Modeler

Model compound heatwave and dry air anomalies using ERA5 reanalysis pressure level parameters. Detect prolonged wildfire ignition windows and quantify parametric trigger uncertainty for forestry assets.

Forestry Risk Modeler

Retrieve ERA5 2-metre temperature and relative humidity grids via cdsapi.

Compute cumulative Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) across commercial timber stands.

Identify high-risk ignition windows exceeding historical 95th percentile anomalies.

Simulate parametric trigger sensitivity and calculate trigger uncertainty bands.

Thermal anomaly timeline dashboard with threshold trigger sliders and PDF summary export.

Execute cdsapi python client requests for ERA5 atmospheric variables or load bundled sample NetCDF files in sandbox. Starter examples below are synthetic. They are not downloaded records.

Copernicus Climate Data Store client Executes cdsapi.Client retrieve queries for ERA5 variables including temperature and pressure levels.

optuna, cdsapi, pandas, scipy. Optimizes trigger threshold boundaries to balance contract basis risk and false positive trigger occurrences. Requires standard Python 3.10+ execution environment with optimization packages and API LLM for report generation.

Submit runnable source, pinned dependencies, setup commands, a working interface, example outputs, and a recorded end-to-end demo. Include tests and an action log.

Calculates Vapor Pressure Deficit from ERA5 temperature and dewpoint values.

Optuna hyperparameter study converges on optimal threshold parameter bounds.

Yields confidence intervals capturing trigger misclassification uncertainty.

```json [ { "input": { "forest_tract_id": "TIMBER-NORTH-04", "era5_max_temp_k": 312.4, "dewpoint_temp_k": 281.2, "consecutive_extreme_days": 9 }, "expected_output": { "forest_tract_id": "TIMBER-NORTH-04", "vpd_kpa": 3.82, "ignition_window_risk": "EXTREME", "simulated_trigger_fired": true, "confidence_interval": [ 0.88, 0.96 ] } }, { "input": { "forest_tract_id": "TIMBER-NORTH-05", "era5_max_temp_k": 298.1, "dewpoint_temp_k": 289.4, "consecutive_extreme_days": 1 }, "expected_output": { "forest_tract_id": "TIMBER-NORTH-05", "vpd_kpa": 0.94, "ignition_window_risk": "NOMINAL", "simulated_trigger_fired": false, "confidence_interval": [ 0.02, 0.08 ] } } ] ```

Performs retrospective risk modeling only; provides no real-time life safety evacuation orders or underwriting commitments. Use mock external writes. Require human review before any real deployment.