Build an ERA5 Drought Soil Moisture Parametric Simulator

Simulate parametric multi-layer soil moisture triggers for rainfed pastureland using ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Model index basis risk and calculate payout frequencies under historical drought conditions.

Agricultural Actuarial Modeler

Generate CDS API requests for volumetric soil water layer parameters across multiple agricultural seasons.

Ingest daily soil moisture time series and compute cumulative dry-anomaly duration indexes.

Model synthetic parametric trigger mechanics against historical regional crop yield losses.

Quantify trigger false positives and false negatives to evaluate contract basis risk.

JupyterLab dashboard and CLI exporting synthetic payout curves and trigger diagnostic tables.

Use ECMWF CDS API client sandbox with cached volumetric soil water reanalysis test records. Starter examples below are synthetic. They are not downloaded records.

Copernicus Climate Data Store client Structure cdsapi requests specifying reanalysis datasets, dates, and volumetric soil variables.

optuna, cdsapi, numpy, pandas. Optuna optimizes parametric trigger thresholds to minimize basis risk against loss indicators. Local Python script with LLM assistance for actuarial summary documentation.

Submit runnable source, pinned dependencies, setup commands, a working interface, example outputs, and a recorded end-to-end demo. Include tests and an action log.

CDS API script contains valid variable and date range parameters.

Calculates cumulative soil moisture deficit across consecutive dry days.

Outputs optimized trigger threshold and simulated historical payout frequency.

```json [ { "input": { "zone_id": "KANSAS_ZONE_4", "target_moisture_m3_m3": 0.15, "consecutive_days_trigger": 14, "daily_soil_moisture": [ 0.18, 0.14, 0.13, 0.12, 0.11, 0.1, 0.12, 0.11, 0.13, 0.12, 0.11, 0.1, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07, 0.16 ] }, "expected_output": { "zone_id": "KANSAS_ZONE_4", "max_consecutive_dry_days": 14, "trigger_activated": true, "simulated_payout_rate": 1, "basis_risk_score": 0.12 } }, { "input": { "zone_id": "KANSAS_ZONE_5", "target_moisture_m3_m3": 0.15, "consecutive_days_trigger": 14, "daily_soil_moisture": [ 0.22, 0.2, 0.18, 0.17, 0.16, 0.15, 0.14, 0.16, 0.17, 0.18 ] }, "expected_output": { "zone_id": "KANSAS_ZONE_5", "max_consecutive_dry_days": 1, "trigger_activated": false, "simulated_payout_rate": 0, "basis_risk_score": 0.04 } } ] ```

Simulations are academic and actuarial models, not authorized insurance contract commitments. Use mock external writes. Require human review before any real deployment.