Build an Agricultural Drought Parametric Index Simulator

Simulate parametric drought contract settlement thresholds using ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis precipitation datasets. Model historical payout triggers and calculate contract basis risk for regional crop cooperatives.

Agricultural Risk Analyst

Ingest ERA5 daily total precipitation grids via Copernicus CDS client.

Compute cumulative rainfall deficit indices against seasonal historical baselines.

Simulate parametric threshold breach scenarios across multi-year intervals.

Generate basis risk reports contrasting simulated triggers with crop stress logs.

Multi-year simulation dashboard plotting cumulative precipitation curves, trigger thresholds, and parametric settlement timelines.

Use cdsapi client to pull monthly or daily ERA5 reanalysis single levels for localized coordinates, or replay local mock NetCDF/GRIB fixtures. Starter examples below are synthetic. They are not downloaded records.

Copernicus Climate Data Store client Uses cdsapi.Client retrieve interface targeting reanalysis-era5 single levels with variable parameter 'total_precipitation'.

mlflow, cdsapi, xarray, numpy. Tracks parametric trigger simulation parameters, threshold variations, and basis risk metrics across runs. Local Python analytics runtime paired with hosted Claude or OpenAI API for synthetic report summarization.

Submit runnable source, pinned dependencies, setup commands, a working interface, example outputs, and a recorded end-to-end demo. Include tests and an action log.

cdsapi retrieve query parameters match valid CDS API syntax.

Simulation accurately detects cumulative rainfall breach points.

Logs all contract runs and trigger metrics to MLflow experiment tracking.

```json [ { "input": { "contract_id": "AGRI-PARAM-DROUGHT-01", "region": "CornBelt-West", "trigger_threshold_mm": 120, "season_total_precip_mm": 88.5, "historical_mean_mm": 210 }, "expected_output": { "contract_id": "AGRI-PARAM-DROUGHT-01", "trigger_breached": true, "deficit_severity": "SEVERE", "simulated_payout_ratio": 1, "basis_risk_indicator": "LOW" } }, { "input": { "contract_id": "AGRI-PARAM-DROUGHT-02", "region": "CornBelt-East", "trigger_threshold_mm": 120, "season_total_precip_mm": 135.2, "historical_mean_mm": 205 }, "expected_output": { "contract_id": "AGRI-PARAM-DROUGHT-02", "trigger_breached": false, "deficit_severity": "MILD", "simulated_payout_ratio": 0, "basis_risk_indicator": "MODERATE" } } ] ```

Outputs simulated parametric settlement indicators; executes no actual financial transfers or legal underwriting binds. Use mock external writes. Require human review before any real deployment.