Build a Regional Policy Counterfactual Comparison Studio
Construct and inspect a synthetic comparison region for a policy study. Track donor eligibility, pre-intervention fit, placebo results, and spillover sensitivity.
What you are building
Two donor regions report outcomes of 80 and 100. Weights of 25% and 75% produce a comparison value of 95. Build a counterfactual review that lets an analyst inspect donor eligibility, pre-policy fit, and placebo results. Show whether spillovers undermine the comparison. A close fit alone does not establish causality.
Rules
A visually close fit alone does not establish a valid causal counterfactual. No fabricated records, source citations, professional endorsements, or expert-adjudication claims. No future-data leakage into dated decisions, model fitting, or historical valuation inputs. No unauthorized payments, account restrictions, regulatory filings, or production changes. No automated appraisal certification, tax-compliance determination, or unsupported fraud accusation. No concealed uncertainty or silently invented inputs required for a numerical conclusion.
How work is evaluated
100-point weighted review with safety gates. Visible starter cases do not establish full application correctness.
A reproducible constrained-weight model. A report retaining excluded donors and pre-fit diagnostics. Runnable local application, setup commands, and a dependency lockfile. Versioned input data, data dictionary, acquisition instructions, and rights notes. Calculation traces, source references, assumption records, and exported review artifacts. A deterministic baseline and tests for normal, incomplete, contradictory, and failure-recovery cases. A recorded complete workflow with a reproducible manifest and explicit limitations.
Datasets
Public datasets, plus the private datasets you have access to.
How submissions are scored
Learning goals
Document the intervention and eligible donor pool.
Fit constrained donor weights on pre-intervention data.
Compare post-intervention gaps with placebo and exclusion exercises.
Export the fitted counterfactual and limitations on inference.
Resources
2 attached datasets, including two visible synthetic starter cases. The fixture ZIP supplies synthetic exercise inputs. It does not supply independently verified real-world records.
Challenge setup
Challenge input
Input details are not configured.
Agent execution
No agent tool is listed for this challenge.
Evaluated output
No output checks are configured.
- Rubric dimension 1
- Rubric dimension 2
- Rubric dimension 3
- 2 public reference cases
- No runtime settings are configured.
Shows the first task, up to three tools, and up to three evidence items.
View technical recipe
Configured tools
No tool records are attached.
Evaluation contract
- Rubric dimension 1 · Weight 30
- Rubric dimension 2 · Weight 25
- Rubric dimension 3 · Weight 20
- Rubric dimension 4 · Weight 15
- Rubric dimension 5 · Weight 10
Reference cases
- 2 public reference cases
Workflow tasks
No workflow tasks are configured.
Recipe freeze marker
No recipe freeze time is recorded.