Build a Recession Signal Research and Disagreement Console
Compare economic slowdown signals on historical decision dates. Show disagreement, calibration, and uncertainty instead of converting one threshold into an official recession declaration.
What you are building
A slowdown signal assigns probability 0.8 to an event that occurs. Its squared probability error is 0.04. Build a historical signal comparison that scores forecasts as issued and shows where indicators disagreed. Keep later outcomes out of the forecast inputs. Report calibration and uncertainty, not an official recession declaration.
Rules
Research signals are not official dates or investment recommendations. No fabricated records, source citations, professional endorsements, or expert-adjudication claims. No future-data leakage into dated decisions, model fitting, or historical valuation inputs. No unauthorized payments, account restrictions, regulatory filings, or production changes. No automated appraisal certification, tax-compliance determination, or unsupported fraud accusation. No concealed uncertainty or silently invented inputs required for a numerical conclusion.
How work is evaluated
100-point weighted review with safety gates. Visible starter cases do not establish full application correctness.
A vintage-aware forecasting pipeline. A model comparison report with chronological splits and label availability rules. Runnable local application, setup commands, and a dependency lockfile. Versioned input data, data dictionary, acquisition instructions, and rights notes. Calculation traces, source references, assumption records, and exported review artifacts. A deterministic baseline and tests for normal, incomplete, contradictory, and failure-recovery cases. A recorded complete workflow with a reproducible manifest and explicit limitations.
Datasets
Public datasets, plus the private datasets you have access to.
How submissions are scored
Learning goals
Freeze features at each decision date.
Fit a simple baseline before a multivariate model.
Compare calibration and signal disagreement on chronological holdouts.
Export an evidence packet with uncertainty and abstentions.
Resources
2 attached datasets, including two visible synthetic starter cases. The fixture ZIP supplies synthetic exercise inputs. It does not supply independently verified real-world records.
Challenge setup
Challenge input
Input details are not configured.
Agent execution
No agent tool is listed for this challenge.
Evaluated output
No output checks are configured.
- Rubric dimension 1
- Rubric dimension 2
- Rubric dimension 3
- 2 public reference cases
- No runtime settings are configured.
Shows the first task, up to three tools, and up to three evidence items.
View technical recipe
Configured tools
No tool records are attached.
Evaluation contract
- Rubric dimension 1 · Weight 30
- Rubric dimension 2 · Weight 25
- Rubric dimension 3 · Weight 20
- Rubric dimension 4 · Weight 15
- Rubric dimension 5 · Weight 10
Reference cases
- 2 public reference cases
Workflow tasks
No workflow tasks are configured.
Recipe freeze marker
No recipe freeze time is recorded.