Build a Probability-Weighted Exit Scenario Valuation Workspace
Compare documented private-company exit scenarios with different timing and class payouts. Preserve scenario probabilities, dilution, discounting, and evidence for every assumption.
What you are building
Build an exit comparison that traces proceeds to each share class before weighting scenarios. In the starter, discounted class values of 5 and 2 receive weights of 40% and 60%, giving 3.2. Show what changes when the probabilities move but exit payouts do not. Record where each probability came from.
Rules
Scenario probabilities are documented judgments, not measured frequencies unless supported by suitable evidence. No fabricated records, source citations, professional endorsements, or expert-adjudication claims. No future-data leakage into dated decisions, model fitting, or historical valuation inputs. No unauthorized payments, account restrictions, regulatory filings, or production changes. No automated appraisal certification, tax-compliance determination, or unsupported fraud accusation. No concealed uncertainty or silently invented inputs required for a numerical conclusion.
How work is evaluated
100-point weighted review with safety gates. Visible starter cases do not establish full application correctness.
A scenario-specific payout and discounting model. A review memo showing probability and dilution sensitivity. Runnable local application, setup commands, and a dependency lockfile. Versioned input data, data dictionary, acquisition instructions, and rights notes. Calculation traces, source references, assumption records, and exported review artifacts. A deterministic baseline and tests for normal, incomplete, contradictory, and failure-recovery cases. A recorded complete workflow with a reproducible manifest and explicit limitations.
Datasets
Public datasets, plus the private datasets you have access to.
How submissions are scored
Learning goals
Review scenario evidence and mutually exclusive outcomes.
Apply scenario-specific capitalization and payout rules.
Discount class payouts under documented conventions.
Export weighted class values and probability sensitivities.
Resources
3 attached datasets, including two visible synthetic starter cases. 409A-01 and 409A-04 simplified one-class rights and exit inputs. Not an appraisal. The fixture ZIP supplies synthetic exercise inputs. It does not supply independently verified real-world records.
Challenge setup
Challenge input
Input details are not configured.
Agent execution
No agent tool is listed for this challenge.
Evaluated output
No output checks are configured.
- Rubric dimension 1
- Rubric dimension 2
- Rubric dimension 3
- 2 public reference cases
- No runtime settings are configured.
Shows the first task, up to three tools, and up to three evidence items.
View technical recipe
Configured tools
No tool records are attached.
Evaluation contract
- Rubric dimension 1 · Weight 30
- Rubric dimension 2 · Weight 25
- Rubric dimension 3 · Weight 20
- Rubric dimension 4 · Weight 15
- Rubric dimension 5 · Weight 10
Reference cases
- 2 public reference cases
Workflow tasks
No workflow tasks are configured.
Recipe freeze marker
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