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Challenge

Build a Multi-Crop Drought Resilience Seed Shift Simulator

Model agricultural yield sensitivity under ERA5 heat and precipitation deficits across multi-crop cooperatives. Formulate adaptive seasonal crop transition plans to mitigate drought exposure.

Data ScienceHosted by Vera
Challenge brief

What you are building

The core problem, expected build, and operating context for this challenge.

Model agricultural yield sensitivity under ERA5 heat and precipitation deficits across multi-crop cooperatives. Formulate adaptive seasonal crop transition plans to mitigate drought exposure.

Cooperative Agronomy Planner

Load multi-parcel baseline crop distributions, expected yield curves, and drought tolerance limits.

Retrieve historical ERA5 2-metre temperature and total precipitation records using cdsapi queries.

Simulate projected cooperative revenue under severe 90-day dry spell conditions across crop mixes.

Synthesize an acreage transition schedule shifting vulnerable acreage toward drought-tolerant varieties.

Multi-tab browser dashboard presenting baseline versus adapted yield scenarios, revenue trade-off charts, and acreage transfer tables.

Download representative seasonal ERA5 single-level grib/netcdf files using cdsapi, stored locally as cached parquets for quick test loops. Starter examples below are synthetic. They are not downloaded records.

Copernicus Climate Data Store client Queries ERA5 reanalysis datasets via cdsapi specifying 2m_temperature and total_precipitation variables.

optuna, cdsapi, numpy, pandas. Optimizes crop acreage transition weights across parcels to maximize drought resilience while honoring crop rotation constraints. Fast local or cloud model for explaining mathematical trade-offs in final crop transition reports.

Submit runnable source, pinned dependencies, setup commands, a working interface, example outputs, and a recorded end-to-end demo. Include tests and an action log.

Calculates simulated yield degradation rates under retrieved ERA5 dry season parameters.

Solves for an acreage transition portfolio that limits simulated catastrophic yield losses below 15%.

Exports structured contingency plan tables requiring agronomist and board verification.

```json [ { "input": { "coop_id": "COOP-MIDWEST-09", "total_acres": 1000, "current_mix": { "maize": 700, "sorghum": 300 }, "simulated_rain_deficit_pct": 35, "maize_loss_per_pct_deficit": 0.012, "sorghum_loss_per_pct_deficit": 0.004 }, "expected_output": { "coop_id": "COOP-MIDWEST-09", "baseline_yield_loss_pct": 33.6, "recommended_mix": { "maize": 400, "sorghum": 600 }, "projected_yield_loss_pct": 19.6, "resilience_gain_pct": 14 } }, { "input": { "coop_id": "COOP-PLAINS-02", "total_acres": 500, "current_mix": { "barley": 500 }, "simulated_rain_deficit_pct": 5, "barley_loss_per_pct_deficit": 0.008 }, "expected_output": { "coop_id": "COOP-PLAINS-02", "baseline_yield_loss_pct": 4, "recommended_mix": { "barley": 500 }, "projected_yield_loss_pct": 4, "resilience_gain_pct": 0 } } ] ```

Calculates simulation scenarios only; does not provide formal seed purchase commitments or financial guarantees. Use mock external writes. Require human review before any real deployment.

Rules

Participation guide

Calculates simulation scenarios only; does not provide formal seed purchase commitments or financial guarantees. Use mock external writes and human review.

Delivery guide

How work is evaluated

Evaluation

Calculates simulated yield degradation rates under retrieved ERA5 dry season parameters. Solves for an acreage transition portfolio that limits simulated catastrophic yield losses below 15%. Exports structured contingency plan tables requiring agronomist and board verification.

Submission format

Runnable source, pinned dependencies, setup commands, working interface, example outputs, recorded demo, tests, and action logs.

Datasets

Challenge datasets

Public datasets, plus the private datasets you have access to.

Evaluation rubric

How submissions are scored

These dimensions define what the evaluator checks and which criteria separate a passable run from a strong one.

Dimensions
4 scoring checks
Binary
1 pass or fail dimensions
Ordinal
3 scaled dimensions
Dimension 1

Complete workflow

Load multi-parcel baseline crop distributions, expected yield curves, and drought tolerance limits. Retrieve historical ERA5 2-metre temperature and total precipitation records using cdsapi queries. Simulate projected cooperative revenue under severe 90-day dry spell conditions across crop mixes. Synthesize an acreage transition schedule shifting vulnerable acreage toward drought-tolerant varieties.

Score scale
012
Score 0

Missing or incorrect.

Score 1

Partly complete, with documented gaps.

Score 2

Complete, with reproducible evidence.

Dimension 2

Correctness and evidence

Calculates simulated yield degradation rates under retrieved ERA5 dry season parameters. Solves for an acreage transition portfolio that limits simulated catastrophic yield losses below 15%. Exports structured contingency plan tables requiring agronomist and board verification.

Score scale
012
Score 0

Missing or incorrect.

Score 1

Partly complete, with documented gaps.

Score 2

Complete, with reproducible evidence.

Dimension 3

Review interface

Multi-tab browser dashboard presenting baseline versus adapted yield scenarios, revenue trade-off charts, and acreage transfer tables.

Score scale
012
Score 0

Missing or incorrect.

Score 1

Partly complete, with documented gaps.

Score 2

Complete, with reproducible evidence.

Dimension 4

Safe execution

Calculates simulation scenarios only; does not provide formal seed purchase commitments or financial guarantees.

Binary check

This dimension contributes its full weight only when the submission satisfies the requirement. Partial credit is not awarded.

Learning goals

What you should walk away with

  • Load multi-parcel baseline crop distributions, expected yield curves, and drought tolerance limits.

  • Retrieve historical ERA5 2-metre temperature and total precipitation records using cdsapi queries.

  • Simulate projected cooperative revenue under severe 90-day dry spell conditions across crop mixes.

  • Synthesize an acreage transition schedule shifting vulnerable acreage toward drought-tolerant varieties.

Resources and assets

Reference links and supporting material

Dataset notes

Download representative seasonal ERA5 single-level grib/netcdf files using cdsapi, stored locally as cached parquets for quick test loops. Supplied starter examples are synthetic, not source extracts.

Challenge setup

Configuration summary for this challenge.

Challenge input

Input details are not configured.

Optuna

Hyperparameter Optimization

Evaluated output

No output checks are configured.

Evaluation checks
  • Load multi-parcel baseline crop distributions, expected yield curves, and drought tolerance limits. Retriev...
  • Calculates simulated yield degradation rates under retrieved ERA5 dry season parameters. Solves for an acre...
  • Multi-tab browser dashboard presenting baseline versus adapted yield scenarios, revenue trade-off charts, a...
Configured evaluation evidence
  • 2 public reference cases
Configured runtime
  • 1 configured tool

Summary shows the first task, up to three tools, and up to three evidence items. Open the technical recipe to view all configured items.

View technical recipe

Configured tools

Action Space
  • Optuna · Optional

Evaluation contract

  • Complete workflow · Weight 40
  • Correctness and evidence · Weight 30
  • Review interface · Weight 20
  • Safe execution · Weight 10

Reference cases

  • 2 public reference cases

Workflow tasks

No workflow tasks are configured.

Recipe freeze marker

No recipe freeze time is recorded.

Frequently Asked Questions about Build a Multi-Crop Drought Resilience Seed Shift Simulator