Build a GDP Nowcast Release-Impact Workbench
Update a quarterly GDP nowcast as monthly releases arrive. Attribute changes to new information, historical revisions, and model refits without leaking future observations.
What you are building
A quarterly GDP estimate moves after a monthly release. Was the change new information, a revision, or a model refit? Build a nowcast update log that runs each step separately and reconciles the total. The starter contributions of 0.20, -0.10, and 0.05 sum to 0.15. Record the attribution order and the release cutoff.
Rules
Attribution order matters. A nowcast interval is not a guarantee. No fabricated records, source citations, professional endorsements, or expert-adjudication claims. No future-data leakage into dated decisions, model fitting, or historical valuation inputs. No unauthorized payments, account restrictions, regulatory filings, or production changes. No automated appraisal certification, tax-compliance determination, or unsupported fraud accusation. No concealed uncertainty or silently invented inputs required for a numerical conclusion.
How work is evaluated
100-point weighted review with safety gates. Visible starter cases do not establish full application correctness.
A scheduled offline nowcast updater with replay support. A report comparing first-release and later-vintage forecast errors. Runnable local application, setup commands, and a dependency lockfile. Versioned input data, data dictionary, acquisition instructions, and rights notes. Calculation traces, source references, assumption records, and exported review artifacts. A deterministic baseline and tests for normal, incomplete, contradictory, and failure-recovery cases. A recorded complete workflow with a reproducible manifest and explicit limitations.
Datasets
Public datasets, plus the private datasets you have access to.
How submissions are scored
Learning goals
Build a release-aware monthly predictor panel.
Fit and archive a baseline at each forecast origin.
Recalculate with new data, revised history, and refitted parameters separately.
Export the nowcast change bridge and forecast interval.
Resources
2 attached datasets, including two visible synthetic starter cases. The fixture ZIP supplies synthetic exercise inputs. It does not supply independently verified real-world records.
Challenge setup
Challenge input
Input details are not configured.
Agent execution
No agent tool is listed for this challenge.
Evaluated output
No output checks are configured.
- Rubric dimension 1
- Rubric dimension 2
- Rubric dimension 3
- 2 public reference cases
- No runtime settings are configured.
Shows the first task, up to three tools, and up to three evidence items.
View technical recipe
Configured tools
No tool records are attached.
Evaluation contract
- Rubric dimension 1 · Weight 30
- Rubric dimension 2 · Weight 25
- Rubric dimension 3 · Weight 20
- Rubric dimension 4 · Weight 15
- Rubric dimension 5 · Weight 10
Reference cases
- 2 public reference cases
Workflow tasks
No workflow tasks are configured.
Recipe freeze marker
No recipe freeze time is recorded.