Build a Forecast-to-Actual Valuation Assumption Review System
Compare archived operating forecasts with later outcomes. Attribute misses to assumptions, acquisitions, currency, and reporting changes before revising a valuation model.
What you are building
A forecast of 100 is followed by reported revenue of 120. Before calling that a miss of 20, check whether the company acquired another business. Build a forecast-to-actual bridge that separates scope, currency, and operating changes. Preserve the original forecast and show which conclusions survive a like-for-like comparison.
Rules
A forecast miss does not establish misconduct or prove that the original valuation was unreasonable. No fabricated records, source citations, professional endorsements, or expert-adjudication claims. No future-data leakage into dated decisions, model fitting, or historical valuation inputs. No unauthorized payments, account restrictions, regulatory filings, or production changes. No automated appraisal certification, tax-compliance determination, or unsupported fraud accusation. No concealed uncertainty or silently invented inputs required for a numerical conclusion.
How work is evaluated
100-point weighted review with safety gates. Visible starter cases do not establish full application correctness.
An immutable forecast review store. An assumption-change report with raw and adjusted forecast errors. Runnable local application, setup commands, and a dependency lockfile. Versioned input data, data dictionary, acquisition instructions, and rights notes. Calculation traces, source references, assumption records, and exported review artifacts. A deterministic baseline and tests for normal, incomplete, contradictory, and failure-recovery cases. A recorded complete workflow with a reproducible manifest and explicit limitations.
Datasets
Public datasets, plus the private datasets you have access to.
How submissions are scored
Learning goals
Freeze forecast versions and their assumptions.
Align actuals to the forecast business scope.
Separate raw error from documented comparability adjustments.
Export a model-change proposal and an approval history.
Resources
2 attached datasets, including two visible synthetic starter cases. The fixture ZIP supplies synthetic exercise inputs. It does not supply independently verified real-world records.
Challenge setup
Challenge input
Input details are not configured.
Agent execution
No agent tool is listed for this challenge.
Evaluated output
No output checks are configured.
- Rubric dimension 1
- Rubric dimension 2
- Rubric dimension 3
- 2 public reference cases
- No runtime settings are configured.
Shows the first task, up to three tools, and up to three evidence items.
View technical recipe
Configured tools
No tool records are attached.
Evaluation contract
- Rubric dimension 1 · Weight 30
- Rubric dimension 2 · Weight 25
- Rubric dimension 3 · Weight 20
- Rubric dimension 4 · Weight 15
- Rubric dimension 5 · Weight 10
Reference cases
- 2 public reference cases
Workflow tasks
No workflow tasks are configured.
Recipe freeze marker
No recipe freeze time is recorded.